Wednesday, 29 June 2016

Brits will support Remain by 2021 even if no-one changes their mind

There has been much discussion as to the disconnect between parliamentary support for the EU and the public's vote to leave in the referendum. However, the referendum result was strongly influenced by a striking effect of age, with older voters anti-EU in contrast to a pro-EU trend among the young, and disproportionate over-representation of older voters at the polling booths. Because of this striking age structure, the UK is destined to become more pro-EU over the years even if no-one changes their mind simply because of population turnover. Based on a very simple analysis (click here for the R code), the UK would lean towards preferring to remain in the UK within the next parliament. The UK would barely be extricated from the EU before it wanted to rejoin! Surely this is an overwhelming reason for MPs to take responsibility to vote down Brexit in the interest of future generations.

1 comment:

Daniel Wilson said...

Today we hear it will take until *2021* to negotiate withdrawal http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07hhvxv#playt=2h4m34s … someone stop this madness